Late last month, Kenya and Somalia announced operational plans to crush al-Shabaab in what the Federal Government of Somalia is calling ‘mop-up operations’ in the highly contested al-Shabaab-controlled southern region of Somalia, along the border with Kenya. The U.S. State Department weighed in as well, and under Executive Order 13224, designated the terrorist group Haraket al-Shabaab’s current leader, Ahmed Diriye—aka Ahmad Umar Abu Ubaidah—and his intelligence chief, Mahad “Karate”—also known by the less grandiose moniker Mahad Mohamed Ali—as “individuals who engage or support acts of terrorism.”
This designation means their assets will be frozen internationally and they will be placed on the United States’ terrorism target deck. Now, with Kenya’s campaign of offering amnesty to al-Shabaab fighters, and their Special Forces conducting raids on suspected al-Shabaab camps in their northwestern border towns providing actionable intelligence, al-Shabaab’s bloody nose is about to turn arterial. But will this newly announced heavy-handed offensive be al-Shabaab’s demise?
The watch list
Shortly after former al-Shabaab leader and spiritual advisor Ahmed Godane met his maker by way of a drone-launched AGM-114N Hellfire missile, his second-in-command, Ahmed Diriye, took over as new leader of the terror group. Diriye is a tall, thin, intense-looking man who governed most of the Lower Juba region in southern Somalia before Godane approached him, asking him to become his advisor and interior minister, overseeing the daily activities of the al-Shabaab network. His allegiance to al-Qaeda and Godane’s idea of al-Shabaab’s terrorist attacks serving al-Qaeda’s ‘greater global cause’ is reported to be ‘unwavering.’ Diriye, in his late forties now, joined the jihad movement in the southern Somalia port town of Kismayo with the Ras Kamboni Brigade in 1996—the very same brigade of the now-infamous Kuno, the Butcher of Garissa.
During his time in the Ras Kamboni, he moved quickly through the ranks and earned himself the title of ‘punisher’ due to his savage brutality toward non-Muslims. Diriye is also championed within al-Shabaab as having led the group that tracked down and “purged al-Shabaab of the American”—otherwise known as Abu Mansour al-Amriki or Omar Hammami, the hip-hop-loving American foreign fighter from Alabama that joined al-Shabaab in the mid 2000s.
Another name on the State Department’s new list is that of Mahad Mohamed Ali, or simply “Karate.” He is the commander of the Amniyat, the intelligence wing of al-Shabaab. The Amniyat is charged with gathering information, developing plans, approving, then financing the final operation, and providing insurgents for the attack. Their secondary mission is to conduct suicide bombings and assassinations all over Somalia. The commander of al-Shabaab central’s Amniyat is a major target, and would be an upper-echelon source to the operations of al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda in East Africa. Back in 2013, in the port town of Baware, Somalia, SEAL Team 6 almost nabbed him.
The target on October 4th, 2013 was the suspected mastermind behind the Westgate Mall attack that occurred a month earlier. Abdukadir Mohamed Abdukadir or “Ikrima,” a central figure in the jihadist movement in East Africa, is considered the liaison between al-Qaeda foreign fighters, al-Shabaab, and Kenyan based al-Hijra. SEAL Team 6 or ST6 came ashore under the cover of darkness, and while attempting to gain access to the target compound, they were compromised or spotted by an armed guard. A firefight ensued and the operators of ST6 found themselves engaged with some heavy resistance. Al-Shabaab was able to call in a reserve of militants almost immediately, thus driving the SEAL team to abort their ‘snatch and grab’ operation of Ikrima. Ikrima wasn’t alone. Karate was with him, along with his personal garrison.
The SEALs did get lucky by providing dirt naps to two foreign fighters that were in attendance before they departed the scene. One was a Sudanese man named Sheikh Abdirahim, who served as an officer within the Amniyat with Karate, the other was a ‘Swedish Somali’ identified by his kunya or family name, Abdi Qadar. According to the State Department, Mahad Karate “played a key role in the Amniyat, the wing of al-Shabaab responsible for the recent attack on Garissa University College in Kenya that resulted in nearly 150 deaths.”
Sepsis
Al-Shabaab has a money problem. Both Kenya and the United States recently went after their last steady influx of cash in the form of remittance payments that were flooding into Somalia from friends and families in diaspora, which SOFREP reported on earlier this year. This only adds to their increasing supply problem. Ethiopian-led AMISOM troop successes in northern Puntland have pushed the militant group out of most major cities and the port of Mogadishu. Kenya took the port city of Kismayo back from al-Shabaab in 2012 during Operation Sledge Hammer.
Where Kenyan Special Forces landed a few kilometers from the port city, and through surreptitious means, entered the city and began inflicting heavy casualties upon multiple targets. By the time the main assault force of the Kenyan Defense Force entered the city of Kismayo, it was all but quelled. Kismayo was al-Shabaab’s logistical hub for weapons and much-needed supplies, and losing this key piece of real estate has cost them.
Diriye’s penchance for brutal violence toward non-Muslims has only catapulted al-Shabaab into the crosshairs of the West. Garissa and the recent suicide bombing attack on a UNICEF convoy in Puntland are prime examples of their desperation to recapture the limelight of fear, something Daash uses to great effect.
The battlespace is clearly being established throughout the country of Somalia. Kenya, having huge success in gaining actionable intelligence with their amnesty program, has extended the deadline another 14 days while preparing to reenter southern Somalia by force with the approval of the Federal Government of Somalia. The Ethiopian government, with the African Union acting as its ‘war-time consigliere,’ has cancelled all travel visa issuance inside northern Somalia, stating that the recent violence in the north has caused some travel concerns.
Prime Minister of Somalia Omar Sharmarke declared the regions of Lower Juba and Gedo the areas of operations, stating: “Other African forces were also gearing up to totally mop out the insurgents from their last operation centers and free the country from al-Shabaab.” Even the United States sent Secretary of State John Kerry to Mogadishu for three hours to show solidarity with the failed state’s decision to take a hard line on its pervasive terrorism problem. Somalia is once again on the eve of a full-scale war, only this time it will have an ‘African face’ on the conflict.
(Featured image courtesy of baltimoresun.com)
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Bombshell article. Another slam dunk from Derek Gannon. If you want to get abreast of the situation in Somalia, you talk to Gannon. geo sends
Targeting "remittance" transfers isn't particularly effective… I'm happy to go into the details, but for the sake of keeping the issue to the basics: It's incorrect to imagine that the U.S. and it's good faith allies (as opposed to the vast, vast majority of those CLAIMING to be cooperating merely to protect and feather their own nests and kick-backs) can simply slap flags on ONE type of remittance designated as such by a County like Kenya or Nigeria or Somalia or etc. and sit back and wait for the whale all these plankton are feeding to starve to death. Doing so merely creates an opportunity for some other nepotistic department in those Countries banking systems to charge a higher fee to redirect monies via a similar, but legally different, route or means to the same end. These networks persist because there ARE ALWAYS corrupt third world bureaucrats willing to cooperate with the international financial "sponsors" of these sorts of group. If simple flags and "terrorist" designations actually worked to interdict 'shadow' banking cross border transfers, there wouldn't be a Narco cartel left standing in the Americas. The fact is, when large amounts of money are to be transferred between willing parties, there is no easy or simple way to stop it when it's outside of ones immediate legal jurisdiction. What happens when feel good, catch all nets are cast is that there is a temporary setback that is easy to confuse with a long term success. People are promoted, politicians boast that the setback is a sign our opponent or enemy is "on the ropes", and lots of high concept wonks write articles claiming credit for themselves. But in reality a setback is a setback, and a couple of years later the funds, like water flowing downhill, have found a different path. Ironically for us, the downside is that our habit of doing this has an evolutionary effect on our enemies organization that persisted, as we invariably catch low hanging fruit that would have fallen anyway with these methods. Frankly, Ethiopia has a very obvious 'price' in terms of Somalia… a swatch of the northern border to the sea wide enough to guarantee Ethiopia it's own port. Kenya doesn't ultimately control it's own banking system, London does. If the U.S. can't stop London bankers from managing $40 billion in IRANIAN assets, who in the universe imagines mere tens of millions being transferred around Kenya and environs are going to get reported? And in the Brits defense, it's not as though there aren't bankers in Dubai or Qatar or etc. who'd be happy to snap up a greater share of that particular part of the black, off-shore, market. I know quite a bit about how the DoS handles international financial interdiction… it has it's own undeclared liabilities hanging around from a decade or more ago, and until it settles or discloses those liabilities, the DoS (and CIA and etc.) will continue to be limited in what it can reasonably accomplish without implicating many hundreds of American foreign service and intelligence officers. Moreover, although they're making the same claims they did in the aftermath of 9/11, Qatar wouldn't be openly bankrolling ISIS if the DoS (and Treasury and etc.) was remotely as effective. I would even go so far as to suggest the U.S. has, for some reason I could only guess at, lost it's asymmetric edge in terms of illicit financial transactions (fired or promoted the wrong people? Retirement? failure to pay it's bills? lol). We used to have a "Big Stick" in this area of asymmetric warfare, but it seems to have been broken. Best, A. Scott Crawford
YankeePapa A7Dave Perhaps China's aggressive move into Africa will drag them into the kind of problems the West has had for decades. Apparently in the new book "Clinton Cash" the author ties the Clinton's "charitable foundation" to a Nigerian Oil kleptocrat who had direct ties to Marc Rich (who Clinton pardoned on his last day in office). No wonder Hillary scrubbed her email server. This is the kind of article I was thinking of: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-07-23/nigeria-seen-by-mckinsey-among-world-s-top-20-economies-by-2030
A7Dave YankeePapa , . "Growth potential of Nigeria." Like investing some years back in Fredericks of Tehran or Ganges Sparkling Water. . ...Nigeria is a failed state that hasn't had the room to fall down. The British left things as tidy as they could, but a generation of gradually taking the reins might have made a lot of difference. Coups, civil war, corruption at all levels. Tribal and religious warfare. . ...Back in the 1970s big thing was for police to pull over (allegedly) drunk driver who could either pay a massive bribe... or simply be shot by the side of the road. Latest stunt was to hire a PMC that was really starting to make a difference.. and then giving in to PC and dismissing them. . ...Oil wealth up the wazoo, but massive poverty. Plenty in Swiss bank accounts of top politicos. Outgoing Prez recently took his begging bowl around trying to get a billion dollars foreign aid... Since vast majority would have never made it for intended purposes, hardly anybody interested. . ...King Solomon would probably start by dividing the country into three parts... Moslem, Ibo, and the rest. But in sub-Saharan Africa that is frowned upon. Preferred method is ethnic cleansing. . ...Nigeria is the poster child of Africa writ large. We really don't want to be putting a large number of conventional forces there. Would make Vietnam look like Disneyland. . ...I'm too old and tired to sugar-coat it like this... I should just tell it like it is... . -YP-
Nice work, derek. Glad to read about some success. The people deserve so much more. Keep writing and bringing awareness.