Russia, Iran, and Turkey meet and discuss Syria without the United States in Beirut, Lebanon. Leaving the U.S. in an awkward diplomatic position. The U.S. was not invited and the UN wasn’t notified. No official reaction has come from either the White House or the President-elect’s transition team. Although it’s certain, there will be a response of some sort. Russia and Iran’s alliance has been anything but secret and this latest move is a tricky one. But, despite the predicament this makes for the U.S. - it’s a strategic play on Russia’s part capitalizing on the recent assassination of the Russian ambassador to Turkey.
Turkey was no doubt apologetic and concerned about the possible Russian response. Russia has a sophisticated information operations campaign that is constantly working and heard around the world. It’s potent enough to make Turkey probably fear Russian aggression. However, in an altercation Turkey would invoke Article 5 and all of NATO, including the U.S., would come to Turkey’s aid. The very point of Article 5 is to keep Russia at bay.
Russia and Iran are both known to study their competition’s psychology and act accordingly. In this instance, Russia might be hedging on President-elect Trump’s words expressing some doubt in the sanctity of NATO. The president-elect has questioned NATO’s true worth and whether or not the partnering nations are pulling their weight. Legitimate questions aside, those remarks can be used to Russia and Iran’s advantage on the world.
When America is the world’s leadership, our stance on a given topic matters more than any other nations. Just like when an elementary schooler plays dumb and tells the teacher “you didn’t tell me not to,” when a rule is broken, Russia has the ability to retort to criticism. Russia can ask why they should notify NATO when the U.S. president has openly expressed doubt in the integrity of the institution?
Featured image courtesy of the New York Times.
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You think that just maybe Erdogan has turned? Why am I not surprised? Let's see, Erdogan still blames Obama for the recent failed coup attempt in Turkey. That might just put a wee bit of a damper on our relationship. Gee, nothing personal, Erdogan, old boy, we were just trying to kill you, you know, like that guy in Libya. Then the EU issues a final statement that there will be no further discussion concerning Turkey becoming a member of the EU, which pretty much kicks Turkey to the curb. Gee, nothing personal, Erdogan, old boy, but you are not one of us. Then the EU says it is going to build its own EU Army to replace NATO, which finishes kicking Erdogan to the curb. Nothing personal, Erdogan, old boy, but we ain't comin' to save your butt in a war with the Ruskies. And, once again, Putin takes advantage of the stupidity of the Western upper class trash to beat them at one more game by turning Erdogan to the dark side. Why am I not surprised that the US or NATO were not invited to this meeting? Why am I not surprised that Erdogan has been turned by Putin? Suggestion: Until we get someone very intelligent and not just clowns who think they are intelligent at the top, DON'T GO TO WAR WITH PUTIN!
Question... could this meeting with Russia & Iran without any other NATO countries been seen as a violation of any of the NATO agreements that would void them invoking Article 5? Would this meeting give the US or any other NATO allies a way out of being required to assist Turkey?
Russia has no real duty to notify NATO of anything, neither does Iran. They aren't members. Turkey, well that is the grey area. If nothing else this is yet another example of Turkey pulling away from the West a bit more and realigning themselves with new "partners". Why wasn't the US included? Honestly, what have we really done that is of note in Syria. Yeah, we have been conducting airstrikes for years now, to seemingly little effect. We have made efforts to train various groups and that has been a disaster. We have SOF guys on the ground but they seem to have few clear long term goals. What makes this worse is that the only time the world at large knows that they are doing anything is when things go poorly. Russia on the other hand has been very public about their involvement. In basically every way that matters (the way it looks to the world), they have been taking the lead on all things Syria. Even beyond Syria, the US just hasn't been seen as keeping up with the competition. The very fact that Russia and China have grown so much in influence, even running counter to US interests, has been a demonstration of this. Of course the weakening of many of our long term allies in the EU have not helped with any of this. Well, there is more but in short, the US isn't the world leader that we once were. Granted, that may not be a bad thing. It is arguable how much it is really important to hold such a position, but we see ourselves that way and we try to play the role. As long as we are playing the role we need to do so well, and we aren't.
Exactly who is leading the coalition again. I do not see myself how this has anything to do with Trump. I do see this to reflect greatly on the current administration. In these many years the US has not come up with a strategy for the Middle East or North Africa, only tactics that disperses more weapons throughout the region. Sun Tzu Strategy Lesson One Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.
Russia, Iran and Turkey - talk about a terrible trio (especially for the Kurds!) Erdogan has stopped saying Assad should step down, and Putin hasn't turned on him over a Turk assassinating the Russian Ambassador. I just wonder if there is any hope that Syria could get a ceasefire that would last more than one day. God help the people of Syria!