After previously committing to stop building up its military presence in the Spratly Islands, an US think tank has analyzed satellite images of a Chinese installation in the South China Sea and determined the Chinese have put in anti-aircraft guns on at least one of their artificial islands. Often a forgotten-about issue with everything else going on in the world today, the Spratly Islands are hotly contested. China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei are among the countries that claim territory in the island chain.
While previous administrations have timidly/bravely sent a ship or two through some shipping lanes in the region, you can bet that the President-elect will be watching this build-up closely. After challenging the One China policy publicly last week, Donald Trump has proven that he’s not backing down from China. And while I believe his flub last week was more ignorance than planned execution, he is in a position to confront China on its refusal to conform to the findings of an international tribunal in July 2016.
In a report on Wednesday, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) said it had been tracking construction of hexagon-shaped buildings on four of the Spratly islands for several months. It said the new buildings were an “evolution” of structures on the three other islands, but it was now confident that all of the buildings housed military defences.
The group says that some buildings “host what are most likely anti-aircraft guns” which have visible gun barrels in satellite images, while others are probably what it terms close-in weapons systems (CIWS).
CIWS are defence platforms used to detect and shoot down missiles and other aircraft.
Some of the structures have been buried, the group said - which would make them less vulnerable to enemy strikes.
“These gun and probable CIWS emplacements show that Beijing is serious about defence of its artificial islands in case of an armed contingency in the South China Sea,” AMTI said.
“Among other things, they would be the last line of defence against cruise missiles launched by the United States or others against these soon-to-be-operational air bases,” it added, in a reference to previous photos which seemed to show aircraft hangars being built.
China’s Defence Ministry said on Thursday that its deployment of military equipment was “legitimate and lawful.” A brief post on the Defence Ministry’s microblog site described the equipment as necessary and defensive.”
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Susan B
If I was allied with a nut...a real whack job (like Kim Jong-un), I think I would prepare my defenses for the cataclysm that he would almost certainly drag me into joining. Isn't that why South Korea is getting the missile defense system and why Japan is ratcheting up their military abilities? China is digging their trenches, too. Only...to use against us or our allies.
Or...they saw the success Putin had in the Ukraine. He pushed against one country and got away with a piece of it. China is doing the same thing. Who's going to push it back?
These are stressful times. Too many opportunities for a miscommunication or mishap to occur, and too much distrust to stop escalation. Our reputation in the world has been reduced in the past 8 years...leading our enemies to think we have lost our nerve. Hence...the Crimea and now the islands of the South China Sea. And it began with the first red line in the sand that continued to move...and move...and move.
Pat G
Wow! Duterte is a piece of work, isn't he? Now he's saying "bye, bye, America" get your troops out, we don't need your money because China will provide. Yeah, I'll just bet they will. He is selling out his country to China, what a shame! I'm sure the Filipinos don't want to be part of the PRC.
Pat G
Who knows where this will end? Months ago we sent military planes over to get a close up look at the islands and then said we would fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows. Maybe China thinks we don't have the will or capability to do more than verbal protests with the crises going on in other parts of the world. But like you said above (TA's can be jerks!), we aren't the only players here, Russia is floating around, and all those other countries claim the area too. Any of them could set off a spark that could blow up into a huge conflict. And China continues to be aggressive, just this week stealing our underwater drone. We've lodged a formal complaint, I haven't heard of any response yet. The incident just continues to inflame tensions, and I read that Admiral Harris, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, just said " We will not allow a shared domain to be closed down unilaterally no mater how many bases are built on artificial features in the South China Sea. We will cooperate when we can but we will be ready to confront when we must." I guess that says it all! Yes, I am also uncomfortable with our position between the rock and the hard place! Thanks so much MV1.
Mustang Voodoo1
Very scary indeed. Also puts us between a rock and a hard place. If we do nothing and allow China to continue to manufacture sovereign Chinese territory, we will look weak and the implications of continued weakness would prove just as compelling as if we do respond with a fuck you, you cannot claim sovereign Chinese territory smack dab in the middle of international waters where several nations claim ownership and access to maritime shipping lanes.
We are damned if we do and damned if we don't
Great post Pat G
Mustang Voodoo1
This whole South China Sea scenario has concerned me for the last few years. One of my last papers as an undergrad was on this very situation. I scored well on my piece, yet I did get into one of the most vocal pissing contests with the TA (the grad student teaching the class as the professors apparently were too busy, LOL) The TA challenged the logic of either side actually having the balls to outright attack the other, whether in the south China Sea or anywhere for that matter...
Just my opinion, but I explained that neither side would overtly attack the other. Yet it is NOT just US and Chinese forces we have to worry about. The Russian Federation has had Naval assets in the south China Sea for well over the last 18 months. The Russians and Chinese have been conducting war games in the area for the last 18 months. They are alleged to be doing this in response to the annual team Spirit (annual war games and readiness exercise we (the US) with the ROK Army and ROK Navy) CALFX we have with south Korea...where North korea regularly throws a hissy fit over the exercises and promise a merciless re......(sorry but the rest of the text from the NK threat was cut short as they must have ran out of fax paper)
I explained that whilst the threat of an overt attack is not likely, all it will take is someone getting fidgity, someone gets scared or nervous and fires on an aircraft or surface vessel, etc... on EITHER side.
Seriously that could be the flash point for a literal WW3.
I must say, I can go either way with regard to my disdain at Obama's perceived lack of a backbone as well as my concern that with Trump being a megalomaniac that he would respond much stronger than the Obama Administration ever would. Whilst a strong response to ANY incident over there would be justified, the implications of such a response, whether a tit for tat or a giant fuck you, let's do this....could lead to a very scary future
Join our community. To comment on this article please join/login. Here's a sample of the comments on this post.
If I was allied with a nut...a real whack job (like Kim Jong-un), I think I would prepare my defenses for the cataclysm that he would almost certainly drag me into joining. Isn't that why South Korea is getting the missile defense system and why Japan is ratcheting up their military abilities? China is digging their trenches, too. Only...to use against us or our allies. Or...they saw the success Putin had in the Ukraine. He pushed against one country and got away with a piece of it. China is doing the same thing. Who's going to push it back? These are stressful times. Too many opportunities for a miscommunication or mishap to occur, and too much distrust to stop escalation. Our reputation in the world has been reduced in the past 8 years...leading our enemies to think we have lost our nerve. Hence...the Crimea and now the islands of the South China Sea. And it began with the first red line in the sand that continued to move...and move...and move.
Wow! Duterte is a piece of work, isn't he? Now he's saying "bye, bye, America" get your troops out, we don't need your money because China will provide. Yeah, I'll just bet they will. He is selling out his country to China, what a shame! I'm sure the Filipinos don't want to be part of the PRC.
Who knows where this will end? Months ago we sent military planes over to get a close up look at the islands and then said we would fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows. Maybe China thinks we don't have the will or capability to do more than verbal protests with the crises going on in other parts of the world. But like you said above (TA's can be jerks!), we aren't the only players here, Russia is floating around, and all those other countries claim the area too. Any of them could set off a spark that could blow up into a huge conflict. And China continues to be aggressive, just this week stealing our underwater drone. We've lodged a formal complaint, I haven't heard of any response yet. The incident just continues to inflame tensions, and I read that Admiral Harris, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, just said " We will not allow a shared domain to be closed down unilaterally no mater how many bases are built on artificial features in the South China Sea. We will cooperate when we can but we will be ready to confront when we must." I guess that says it all! Yes, I am also uncomfortable with our position between the rock and the hard place! Thanks so much MV1.
Very scary indeed. Also puts us between a rock and a hard place. If we do nothing and allow China to continue to manufacture sovereign Chinese territory, we will look weak and the implications of continued weakness would prove just as compelling as if we do respond with a fuck you, you cannot claim sovereign Chinese territory smack dab in the middle of international waters where several nations claim ownership and access to maritime shipping lanes. We are damned if we do and damned if we don't Great post Pat G
This whole South China Sea scenario has concerned me for the last few years. One of my last papers as an undergrad was on this very situation. I scored well on my piece, yet I did get into one of the most vocal pissing contests with the TA (the grad student teaching the class as the professors apparently were too busy, LOL) The TA challenged the logic of either side actually having the balls to outright attack the other, whether in the south China Sea or anywhere for that matter... Just my opinion, but I explained that neither side would overtly attack the other. Yet it is NOT just US and Chinese forces we have to worry about. The Russian Federation has had Naval assets in the south China Sea for well over the last 18 months. The Russians and Chinese have been conducting war games in the area for the last 18 months. They are alleged to be doing this in response to the annual team Spirit (annual war games and readiness exercise we (the US) with the ROK Army and ROK Navy) CALFX we have with south Korea...where North korea regularly throws a hissy fit over the exercises and promise a merciless re......(sorry but the rest of the text from the NK threat was cut short as they must have ran out of fax paper) I explained that whilst the threat of an overt attack is not likely, all it will take is someone getting fidgity, someone gets scared or nervous and fires on an aircraft or surface vessel, etc... on EITHER side. Seriously that could be the flash point for a literal WW3. I must say, I can go either way with regard to my disdain at Obama's perceived lack of a backbone as well as my concern that with Trump being a megalomaniac that he would respond much stronger than the Obama Administration ever would. Whilst a strong response to ANY incident over there would be justified, the implications of such a response, whether a tit for tat or a giant fuck you, let's do this....could lead to a very scary future